Shown below are GMO's seven-year projections for a swath of asset classes."We might wish this situation was different; that the dogmatic interventionists at the Fed might recognize the road to financial implosion that they've placed the economy on once again," Hussman said. "We might even hope that someone at the Fed will learn a lesson when it all goes to smoke in a blazing dumpster fire. Don't hold your breath.
"Valuations are enormously informative about long-term returns as well as prospective market losses over the completion of a given cycle," he said. "Investors should understand that to the extent that reliable valuation measures are wildly above their historical norms, future stock market returns are also likely to be wildly below their historical norms."
Today, Hussman's measure of "somewhat improved market internals" leads him to a "fairly neutral" short-term outlook. "My opinion is that at some point over the completion of the current cycle, or even the following one, we'll see the S&P 500 trade below the 1,200 level," he said. "I continue to expect the market to lose about two-thirds of its value over the completion of its cycle.
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