Could 1979’s Oil Market Chaos Be Repeated?

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Banning Russia from the SWIFT system could create chaos in oil markets, even if supplies are rerouted to other buyers.

But few recall that the industry structure also underwent a revolution at that time. Although most OPEC countries had nationalized the upstream operations in their countries, most were still selling the bulk of their oil to the previous lessees, primarily the Seven Sisters. Not only did those companies lose their Iranian supply in 1979, but much of the oil they were lifting from exporting nations was cut off.

But this meant that those companies that lost oil supply in this manner had to seek new supplies, reduce sales to third parties—especially Japanese oil companies—who were then forced to seek their own new supplies. All while oil consuming governments urged each other not to pursue scarce spot supplies, but encouraging their own companies to find whatever they could.

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