Investment banks rush to cut yuan forecasts again after April revisions

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SHANGHAI/HONG KONG : Major investment houses are cutting their forecasts for the yuan for the second time in just three weeks as the Chinese currency's recent sharp declines tore through their previous revisions, catching many off guard.A triple whammy of slowing growth, COVID-19-related economic disrupti

SHANGHAI/HONG KONG : Major investment houses are cutting their forecasts for the yuan for the second time in just three weeks as the Chinese currency's recent sharp declines tore through their previous revisions, catching many off guard.

Several banks now see the yuan weaking to 6.9 or even hitting the 7 mark before the end of the year, levels not seen since the early stage of the pandemic in 2020. HSBC, cutting its yuan forecast for the second time in three weeks, now expects the yuan to trade at 6.75 per dollar at the end of the second quarter before bouncing to 6.70 at the end of Q3, compared with 6.60 and 6.62, respectively, after its previous revision.

A slew of weaker-than-expected April economic data released on Monday and last week, including credit lending, retail sales and industrial output, reaffirmed market views that the world's second-largest economy faces mounting headwinds as COVID-19 lockdowns take a heavy toll. "The downside risk comes from the People's Bank of China leaning aggressively against further CNY weakness and a sharper decline in dollar than we expected; risk sentiment could also boost CNY in the case of massive stimulus. In this case, USD/CNY could see quick retracement to 6.70."

Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank, cut his year-end yuan forecast for a second time on Monday to 6.7 from 6.6.

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