Growing forecasts for U.S. recession may spell more trouble for stocks

The Federal Reserve’s aggressive monetary policy tilt has prompted some of Wall Street’s biggest banks to ramp up forecasts for a U.S. recession, threatening more downside for an already bruised stock market.

Morgan Stanley strategists including Michael Wilson wrote Tuesday that an S&P 500 level of 2,900 to 3,100 – roughly 18-23% below where it stands today – would more fully reflect the typical corporate earnings contractions during recessions. “This dynamic raises serious growth risks, and we now see the U.S. restart of economic activity stalling over the coming quarters,” wrote Jean Boivin, head of the institute, in a report on Tuesday.

Societe Generale analysts said that while recession was not their base case, a “typical” recession would put the S&P 500 at 3,200 while a 1970s style stagnation with high inflation and low growth would bring stocks down to 2,525. On Monday, Goldman Sachs estimated a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from its previous forecast of 15%, with record-high inflation and a weak macroeconomic backdrop fueled by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

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