A farmer plants saplings in a paddy field on the outskirts of Ahmedabad, India, January 31, 2020. Picture taken January 31, 2020. REUTERS/Amit Dave/File Photo, a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that has a 90% probability of persisting in the second half of 2023, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
Ghana, Kenya and the Philippines are also high up on the list while countries such as South Africa and Chile are among the least vulnerable - together with most of the developed market economies such as Germany or the United States. There are, however, exceptions - Argentina had a record soy harvest in previous El Nino episodes, according to Morgan Stanley.
Southern Africa, Central America and the Caribbean and parts of Asia are of "particular concern" due to already high levels of food insecurity, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Energy prices are also a key driver of food inflation, they warned, while warmer temperatures could increase demand for air conditioning.Latin American central banks were among the first to ramp up interest rates after COVID-19 to fight rising prices, and are the first to kick off easing, led by Chile and Brazil.