If you're looking for trillions of dollars making the bet that a recession is coming sooner rather than later for the U.S. economy, don't look to major corporations.
The CNBC Global CFO Council represents some of the largest public and private companies in the world, collectively managing nearly $5 trillion in market value across a wide variety of sectors. The first quarter 2019 survey was conducted between Feb. 7 and Feb. 22 among 54 members of the Council. Chief financial officers remain less convinced about the renewed U.S. stock market rally — and their recent concerns about stock valuations proved to be prescient. In the fourth quarter survey, CFOs told CNBC that it was more likely the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined to 23,000 than rose to 27,000. That survey was conducted shortly before the massive declines in December that saw the Dow touch a low just under 22,000.
Concerns about a global growth slowdown are weighing on the Federal Reserve. In comments earlier this week at a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas event, Fed vice chairman Richard Clarida said the global economic slowdown was a big factor behind the central bank's decision to slow its planned interest rate hikes."The reality is that the global economy is slowing. You've got negative growth in Italy, Germany may just grow ... 1 percent this year, [and] a slowdown in China.
Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said on Tuesday in semiannual testimony before the U.S. Senate,"while we view the current economic conditions as healthy and the economic outlook as favorable, over the past few months we have seen some crosscurrents and conflicting signals. ... financial conditions are now less supportive of growth than they were earlier last year." Powell also expressed concerns about China and Europe.
Tipping Point All the recent 'happy talk' from the production side, denying the December Macro signals, is about to be tested. We have been riding a rising Debt Paradigm, Fiscal, Corporate., Personal. 2019 Economic story is going to be driven by the consumer demand side.
Maybe not but that doesn’t mean the markets should go higher, there needs to be a consolidation and slow drift down, not whip everyone around on volatile trading coasters.
Yeah, where have I heard that before
No recession
Great. Now ask about earnings.
No recession in 2019 is a given! Need to worry about 2020 with extremists at all levels of politics. Uncertainty at defcon 5 levels in 2020.
And no one else on the planet did either.
Contrary to popular belief Corporations are reactionary not visionary.
Oh well that guarantees there will be then.
Sure, that's what they said until October '29 as well, and then again in '08 once we passed bills that protected U.S.
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