U.S. companies binged on debt when rates were super low, so they wouldn’t have to swallow the bitter pill of higher borrowing costs down the road.
Still, an “iceberg” could await corporations if the Fed keep rates higher for longer. Fears of that precise backdrop next year helped send the benchmark rate for the U.S. economy to its highest level since the fall of 2007, with the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y around 4.59% on Friday. Despite all the Fed already has done to fight inflation, many companies still benefit from ultra low pandemic rates, with only about 10% of the roughly $1.5 trillion U.S. junk bond market having seen rates reset this year, according to BofA Global.
High-yield bonds have been a bright spot in the roughly $55 trillion U.S. bond market this year, where a jump in long-term yields since July has put the popular iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT down almost 11% on the year so far and the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ET AGG down 3% in 2023, according to FactSet.
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