Latest market-sensitive news and views - Oct. 4

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House GOP chaos will slow work on appropriations, other issues— Equities today: Asian and European stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. Dow opened around 35 points higher. In Asia, Japan -2.3%. Hong Kong -0.8%. China closed. India -0.4%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.1%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.2%.

— U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rates surge to 22-year high amid rising treasury yields. In the week ending Sept. 9, 2023, the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances in the U.S. rose by 12 basis points to reach 7.53%. This marks the fourth consecutive week of rate increases, propelling borrowing costs to levels not seen since November 2000. The surge in mortgage rates can be attributed to the sharp rise in Treasury yields.

— Yields on 30-year Treasuries hit 5% for the first time since 2007 — and some are signaling the 10-year is next. — Cost of Australian cattle has sunk to the lowest in about nine years and is likely to drop further as ranchers cull an expanded herd. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator has fallen almost 60% this year, while livestock numbers have swelled to the highest in a decade. Bloomberg.— President Biden reassures allies of continued U.S. support for Ukraine despite funding bill omission.

— Former Russian TV journalist sentenced to 8.5 years for anti-war display. Marina Ovsyannikova, a former Russian state TV journalist, has been sentenced in absentia to 8.5 years in prison for her public display of a"Stop the war" placard during a broadcast following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. She was convicted of"spreading knowingly false information about the Russian Armed Forces.

— Biden administration plans trade talks with U.K., bypassing congressional involvement. The Biden administration's intention to initiate trade negotiations with the U.K., focusing on a new trade partnership without tariff adjustments, has stirred concerns on Capitol Hill, according to Politico. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Ron Wyden expressed disappointment, emphasizing that the administration's approach leaves Congress sidelined on U.S. trade policy.

— Drugmakers agree to negotiate with Medicare over prices. Ten pharmaceutical companies, including Janssen, Novartis and Novo Nordisk, will begin talks with the federal government as part of a discounted price regime introduced by the Inflation Reduction Act, even as several sue to stop it. The Congressional Budget Office projects that a breakthrough in negotiations would save taxpayers about $100 billion over a decade.

"Think long and hard before you plunge us into chaos," Tom Cole, an Oklahoma Republican and a McCarthy ally, told his House colleagues before the vote yesterday,"because that's where we're headed if we vacate the speakership." Gaetz replied:"Chaos is Speaker McCarthy," Gaetz replied."Chaos is somebody who we cannot trust with their word."

The absence of a House Speaker will lead to a stall in legislative business until a replacement is elected. McCarthy said he would not run again for the job. Potential successors mentioned by Gaetz include GOP Whip Rep. Tom Emmer, 61, and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, 58 on Friday, — Scalise was recently diagnosed with blood cancer. This has led some Republicans to wonder if he's physically up for the job.

— Sen. Ben Cardin blocked military aid to Egypt days after Sen. Bob Menendez stepped down as Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair over allegations that he took bribes to help the Egyptian government. At issue is $235 million in foreign military financing — Egypt's share of US funds provided to countries as either a grant or a loan to allow them to purchase defense equipment.

Of note:"I get your point that [the CFPB's funding] is different, that it's unique, that it's odd, that they've never gone this far. But...not having gone this far is not a constitutional problem." — Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. • IPEF session. U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai host sa virtual ministerial meeting with Indo-Pacific Economic Framework Pillar I counterparts to review progress made so far and outline ongoing engagement on the Trade Pillar in order to advance resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness in the region.

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