NEW YORK - As Wall Street braces for what may be the first U.S. profit decline since 2016, investors say the first quarter may not mark the low point for 2019 earnings.
In a troubling sign for the U.S. outlook, a report on Friday showed U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly cooled in March, and the spread between three-month Treasury bills and 10-year note yields inverted for the first time since 2007. An inverted Treasury yield curve is seen as a warning of a coming recession.
“It would be great if Q1 represented a low point, but I’m not betting on it,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management in Chicago. Those numbers could keep falling, while the first-quarter forecast is likely to improve from here. Since 1994, earnings have surprised to the upside on average by 3.2 percent, according to Refinitiv data, which suggests S&P 500 companies will post an earnings gain for the first quarter.
'Earnings'? Have they EARNED them? They can always get a job.
Another Red Flag that A Trump/Republican’s Recession is going to happen. Hopefully it’s is not as severe as 2008 another Republican Recession. Let’s see what the first quarter GDP is. If it’s less than 3% then quit spending & prepare for many job losses.
Thanks, Federal Reserve...
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