) at the beginning of August, but why are tech stocks seeing this rebound, and is it time to buy back into the sector?) is trading below $60,000 once again after recovering from a crypto sell-off earlier in the month. It comes at a time when crypto legislation is in focus from the US presidential candidates and top political leaders.) up to $1.6 billion in grants to build chip manufacturing plants in Texas and Utah. The project is currently expected to cost a total of $18 billion through 2029.
And finally, she'll announce new efforts around health care costs including a push to cap the price of insulin at $35 for everyone, not just for seniors. So again, we take a look at the bond market moves couple that with some of that excitement that we've been seeing within the stock market. But for the markets, at least that might be digested as, hey, that just means that we're finally gonna get these rate cuts right?So we'll see what that set up looks like going into September and where more of that fed speak continues to move the market dialogue and market always reason at least to be optimistic it seems like as of late.
Yeah, Shawny, you did see some dip buying specifically in the tech sector and really in the indexes overall. And if what's happening isn't a thesis changer, then maybe just stay in the market and that's played out for investors that stayed in the market.And then what happened was you saw at that point, the NASDAQ and correction territory down 10% and all of a sudden everyone says the risk reward looks a little bit better.I know that's something you had been talking to strategists about and saying, you know, maybe, maybe it's time to be a dip buyer at the, at the start of last week.
So Keith Werner over at Truist who had upgraded the tech sector last week, he did some great work highlighting the nasdaq's output or sorry sectors out performance in the S and P 500 in June on a rolling two month basis.Then you spin that forward to the sell off.So you had this big dichotomy there and then so it's easy to come in to some extent.
Um However, if we look at the underlying drivers of the recent uh, unemployment rate rise, they're actually quite different than they have been historically. Well, you know, I think when, when we look at the balance of risks to the outlook, what we see has has changed uh more dramatically recently is the balance of risks around inflation.
And we do think growth is slowing, um, you know, growth was ha was 3% last year, very strong pace, um, above trend pace, you know, we think it's slowing and that's kind of healthy uh, this year.I think there's still, um, you know, very firm pieces of the economy, solid pieces of the economy, including uh consumers overall.
So, yes, I think the FED will start to ease back to where they think more normal levels of monetary policy should be in the long run. You know, as I mentioned, restrictive policy looks a little bit misplaced now relative to where the economy is and there's, you know, there's certainly arguments for them to get back to neutral more quickly.
Um, you know, certainly things are slowing and we think it's now time to return monetary policy to more normal territory.Um, you know, and so whether they do, uh, you know, I think we think they're gonna do 25 but whether they do 25 or 50 I think that's the more important piece is the communication on this.And uh we've still got some time until that next meeting, Tiffany Wilding, who is the Pimco managing director and economist.
There are also um tax breaks on the demand side too, which I think will bring it in for some criticism including a $25,000 tax credit towards down payment payments of first time home buyers. Currently the new rules in the last couple of years have done it for seniors, but this would be for everyone. And you know, that is just can continue to be the case for a lot of semiconductor companies right now.And semiconductors providing the foundation for tectonic shifts in technology that shaping the global economy over the next several decades.
It al they also go on to say that it positions the company to outperform our markets over the longer term and in terms of why we are seeing a bit of a reaction here to the downside of just about 3.5%. I mentioned those factories, one is in Utah, two are in Texas and those projects are expected to cost about $18 billion through the next five years through 2029.
In fact, they can build geo politically dependable capacity for analog and embedded processing chips. So all of that considered here, this just another infusion of capital that will help them steer towards some of the market share that they hope to take on more of in the semiconductor industry here. That is what they would have to pay then for Sky Dance if they were to abandon that deal in, in terms of who Romy has held talks with reportedly has held talks with the Fortress Investment group, Roku Hollywood, producer Steven Paul, who had expressed some of that interest in the bid here for National Amusement.Yeah, I mean, and what ultimately is the biggest delta for the consumer right now?
And you can see there's that big spike up to 65 but it came crashing back down and has now slowed the descent, but it's still edging lower there.Today it's a laggard, but let's take a look at the five day and we can see tech and consumer discretionary, the only outliers or the only out performers here tech up 7% and let's get gauge on the month of August, you can see staple, staples is a leading sector.
And then of course, you had the winding of the yen carry trade, but here we are almost two weeks later and it looks like there's a lot more optimism playing out in the market.Yeah, it certainly feels like a distant memory shaw of that sell off that we saw a couple of weeks ago on growth fears.
That's permeating very strongly right now, Emily, where are some of those opportunities that you're seeing investors really flow into? Is there anything just in terms of the data that we've gotten out recently or even within the fundamentals? So that's just a fancy way of saying that the credit markets are telling you there's no problem whatsoever here.What you typically see are these are the two of the most timely indicators and once they spike and it can happen quickly.
If we were to see as Austin Goolsbee is talking about this morning, the warning signs of recession, what are your anticipations there?We're chugging along here. I mean, that is remarkable in terms of the, the, um, cost of capital that's in play for consumers today.Um, but we want to be careful here.The aggregate bond index now yielding close to 5%.
And we've seen when there are big transfers like that, that are government related, that there are huge draw downs in the price and the price action of Bitcoin.I think it did play a small role because whenever you heard about, you know, government Germany us sell some uh Bitcoin or crypto assets, usually it puts some downward pressure.I think it's like in the magnitude of like $30 billion per, per day.
So I, I would say around a few weeks ago, I think people felt like there was a lot uh for Trump and now you, you see that there are more pressure on the Democratic uh party and Chuck Schumer just like you said, two days ago came out and talk about crypto.And I think overall it's good for the industry.Um, but going back to her, uh, to, to his comment, I do feel like, uh, I'm optimistic that, uh, there will be more regular to clarity in 2025.
So again, on the heels of that and maybe further deterioration within those businesses, Bank of America, at least seeing a reason to downgrade the stock you met the number there.Rallying the tax preparation company reporting better than expected earnings in its fourth quarter report and hiking its dividend and stay tuned.
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