According to the latest data from the Central Energy Fund for 7 November, there has been a minor improvement in fuel price recoveries compared to the beginning of the month. Although the rand’s volatility, particularly in the lead-up to and immediately after the US presidential election, kept upward pressure on fuel prices—resulting in an under-recovery of up to 16 cents per litre—markets have begun to stabilise.
The recovery is not limited to petrol prices; all fuel types have seen a small but positive shift, with under-recovery amounts reducing by around 12 cents per litre. This improvement can be attributed to a stronger rand, which has rebounded after losing value against the US dollar following the election of Donald Trump as president.
Nedbank economists noted that the revision of market expectations for US interest rate cuts in 2025 has affected emerging market currencies broadly, although this is not expected to significantly impact South Africa’s own interest rate policy in the short term. Future rate hikes remain a possibility, depending on how global economic conditions evolve.