Where five-year performance is not available, the longest period available has been used, eg three yearsPSG Wealth Old Oak portfolio manager Schalk Louw is characteristically sanguine. He notes that comparisons between the JSE’s performance and other stock markets such as the New York Stock Exchange, which has done a lot better than the JSE for a while now, should be done over the long term.
It has been tough doing business in South Africa for the past five years, he admits. In 2012, South Africa moved out of recession and money was flowing back into emerging markets, but the political environment soured, he says. The currency came under pressure, and so did listed companies. Globally, uncertainty persists. The Trump trade war has affected Chinese internet companies, for example. South Africa did have a bad year, but so did other emerging economies. There is turmoil all over the world, especially in emerging countries, he says. “The US market has been boosted by artificial money, and somewhere along the line that will stop.” Indeed, at the time of writing, thereports that analysts believe US stocks are looking increasingly expensive compared to the rest of the world.
This may be the time to buy, selectively, shares on the JSE but the adage of “time in the market is better than timing the market” surely holds true for most investors. Five years is the minimum, but clearly, that is not always long enough.
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