American shares are poised for another year of leading global markets by a hefty margin, based on a set of ETFs through Friday’s close ., US stocks in 2024 will likely take the performance crown with a red-hot gain for a second straight calendar year.This year’s losers are confined to various flavors of foreign bonds. The deepest loss year to date: inflation-indexed government bonds ex-US is heading for another strong increase in 2024. So far this year, GMI is up 17.
Yet there are optimists who see US-led outperformance continuing for a third year. “We expect the bull market in global equities will likely continue in 2025, with the U.S. again likely to outperform the rest of the world,” says Arun Bharath, chief investment officer at Bel Air Investment Advisors in Los Angeles.
Even after last week’s sharp correction, it’s not obvious that the bull trend has snapped. Meantime, the year ahead promises plenty of change, starting with a Trump 2.0 policy agenda. Strategists are debating if the outlook is a net positive or negative given the political shift that’s coming. The crowd’s view, for now, is that the bull run remains intact. That will change at some point, of course. When it does, the shift will be relatively clear by way of a downside bias in the S&P.
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