Don’t overlook this gravy train that can support U.S. stocks

There’s a lot of worries to go around, from trade tensions with China to Britain’s possible abrupt exit from the European Union and now, political turmoil in debt-laden Italy. More on that in a bit.

With that forecast in mind, the Macroeconomic Advisers team forecasts a 20% gain in the S&P 500 SPX, +1.88% this year—it’s 17% as of Thursday—and bond yields TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.69% to “trend slowly higher” but not breach 3% until the middle of 2021 at the earliest. The buzz There was a lot of international news for markets to digest. Chinese producer prices declined while consumer prices accelerated, putting Chinese authorities in a bind. Italian stocks tumbled after the call for a snap election. The U.K. economy shrank for the first time in seven years, not exactly a great backdrop for the British government to negotiate with the EU, while the Japanese economy was stronger than expected.

Interestingly, while money is flowing out of stocks — $24.9 billion, including $12.4 billion on Monday alone—the flows of $3.6 billion into bonds was the least since Jan. 2016, according to the BAML data.

More asset inflation and more U.S. debt.

Or more specifically if trump doesn’t spoil it

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Wall Street drops as bond market stokes recession fearsU.S. stocks slipped on Wednesday, as investors reeling from rising trade tension... Everything will resume back to normality at end of week.... China loses though big time ! The one thing Donald could sort of point to as a success, the economy, and he's fucking it up. He also doesn't talk about the economy a lot because his base doesn't understand it. They figure they're ok if they got money for trailer rent, beef jerky, beer, bait, and ammo. Well who's FAULT is that!!, I quote!, 'AMERICA FIRST'!!?
Source: Reuters - 🏆 2. / 97 Read more »