"At the end of July, our estimate of prospective 12-year total returns for a conventional asset mix invested 60% in the S&P 500, 30% in Treasury bonds, and 10% in Treasury bills, reached the lowest level in history except for the single week of the August 1929 market top," he said.The chart below depicts the estimated 12-year annual total return on a conventional portfolio — which Hussman outlines above — juxtaposed against actual subsequent returns.
"Our measures of internals shifted negative on February 2, 2018, and with very brief exception, have remained unfavorable since," Hussman added."The period of negative internals since February 2018 has resulted in a sideways market with multiple V-shaped corrections." "Presently, a retreat in valuations, to the highest level ever observed at the end of any market cycle in history, would be enough to completely wipe out the total return of the S&P 500, over-and-above T-bills, since the year 2000," he relayed.
Ah. Is this a time for another UrbanMyth of a harbinger of doom leaning against a pillar selling stocks only to ride back into them at the bottom of the market? The evidence might well be slender but I can faintly hear Nathan Mayer Rothschild laughing. PlayingTheGame?
A bag of market predictions and a nickel is still worth a nickel.
because of one market bear