The world's most accurate economist says a full US recovery is unlikely before 2022 — and warns of a stock-market correction before year-end | Markets Insider

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The world's most accurate economist says a full US recovery is unlikely before 2022 — and warns of a stock-market correction before year-end

Christophe Barraud, chief economist of the broker-dealer Market Securities, has been ranked Bloomberg's most accurate forecaster of US economic data eight years in a row.

The pandemic slammed the US economy, putting millions of Americans out of work and leading to a 5% slump in gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2020. And, it's going to get worse — economists estimate that US GDP will slump more than 30% in the second quarter, before returning to growth at the end of the year. "It will take a long time for life to return to normal," Barraud told Business Insider.

"Markets are not pricing in a lot of risk," said Barraud, adding that this may be due to dovish fiscal policy, or the potential for another round of stimulus in the short term as countries deal with the virus.

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