Earnings and fiscal debate could be catalysts for stocks in the week ahead

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Investors are braced for a barrage of earnings news, and the debate in Congress around fiscal stimulus may also be an important catalyst.

Congress returns from its break and should pick up the pace of negotiations towards a new fiscal stimulus package, which is expected to address aid for state and local governments and enhanced unemployment benefits. Benefits, including the $600 additional weekly payment for the millions collecting unemployment is expected to be a hot topic of discussion, as the benefit ends on July 31.

Now strategists are watching to see if the froth will be let out slowly or blow off in a big move that takes the rest of the market with it. Emanuel said the volatile reversal in the Nasdaq does not bode well for the Nasdaq, and it could see a 10% correction. There's been a surge of retail activity in some of the frothiest names, such as Tesla, which surged from about $1,000 at the end of June to a high of $1,795 during Monday's session. It is since about $300 per share lower.

When Congress broke for the July 4 holiday, there was a big divide on how much stimulus should be added, on top of the $2.4 trillion already adopted. The Democratic proposal was for $3 trillion, while Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said no more than $1 trillion. Now the gulf has narrowed, butCornerstone Macro's Andy Laperriere said the package could now be $1.5 trillion or more, more than he expected just several weeks ago.

 

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