Drexel University study looks at coronavirus, summer teen employment - Business Insider

, predicted what the teen employment rate could be for the summer given the effects of the pandemic. The researchers wrote in their paper that about "one-third fewer teens will work this summer because of the COVID-19 shutdowns."

The team built a statistical regression model, based on a 2006 model out of Northeastern University's Center for Labor Market Studies, using data between 1980 and 2005 as well as seasonally-adjusted employment rates from previous months to predict employment rates. The model uses employment rates from January to March of the current year and the average January to March employment rates in previous years to predict the teen employment rate for the current summer.

To predict what the rate for the current summer, the researchers updated their model with the "actual rates" from the past few months that reflect the pandemic's effects on employment. To predict what will happen if there were no coronavirus or lockdowns, the researchers assumed "that the strong economy with a very low unemployment rate and a labor shortage condition that existed before the shutdowns would continue through the spring of this year.

These two numbers are both notable because the predicted non-pandemic 32.8% would have been the highest summer rate since 2008. In contrast, the 22.8% estimated as a result of the lockdowns would surpass previous historic lows in summer teen employment as noted by the researchers in their paper. After the Great Recession, summer teen employment dropped from 32.4% in 2008 to 28.5% in 2009 and only recently started to climb back up. Last summer's rate was as high as 30.

The researchers found in summer 2018 to 2019, teens typically worked in "service and low-level sales" occupations. These jobs, such asDo you have a personal experience with the coronavirus you'd like to share? Or a tip on how your town or community is handling the pandemic? Please emailfrom Business Insider Intelligence on how COVID-19 is affecting industries.

Not the plundemic ... the ANC is the worst thing to happen to our economy ... the plundemic is the excuse nit the reason

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