The stock market is usually a good predictor of presidential winners, but this year is different

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This year, the stock market's ability to predict the elections could be thrown because of the economic fallout from the worst global pandemic in a century and one of the sharpest downturns since the Great Depression.

Want to know who will win the presidential election? Stocks and the economy are usually good crystal balls.

Following a coronavirus-fueled selloff in March, the S&P 500 has staged a stunning rebound to record highs in August, even as the economy remains in a recession. While many have seen their retirement balances recover with the market turnaround, the nation has recouped slightly less than half the unprecedented 22 million jobs wiped out in early spring.

In 2016, for instance, Hillary Clinton was favored to win the presidency, but the stock market suggested otherwise. Stocks were weak leading up to the election, with the Dow Jones industrial average lower nine consecutive days. To be sure, stock market downturns don’t always happen during recessions. But both happening at the same time are typically one of the worst events for an incumbent.

“Can Trump convince the American electorate that the coronavirus pandemic was a shock to the economy, and that he’s still the best candidate moving forward?," asks Clissold."How voters perceive the markets and the economy is vital.”History has shown that when a recession has occurred during the two years before the election, the incumbent president has tended to lose.

With less than 50 days until Election Day on Nov. 3, the race is close. The Biden-Harris ticket is currently leading in the polls. The Real Clear Politics average of major polls shows the national lead at 5.9 percentage points.

 

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Yeah... keep telling yourself that!

According to this article (although the writer is hoping for a downturn) Trump will be victorious.

No...it's not any different. The economy is the most important thing to everyone. Fake Racism outrage is only on TV. No one thinks black people are hunted down it's the opposite BLM runs around hunting down BUILDING'S and acting a fool. We all know it's Trump landslide

HAHA - Nobody wants Bidens world of violence, hate and racism. TRUMP will win in a landslide. The only people that want Biden to win are Hillary, China and Antifa.

IT’S TIME TO ANTE UP! Maya Angelou said,”Do the Best You Can Until You Know Better. Then When You Know Better, DO BETTER!” We've Had 4Yrs Of Lies, Racism & Death Via I45/His Regime. WE GOT 1 SHOT TO FOCUS/END THE BS! REGISTER NOW/VOTE ASAP. NO EXCUSES...DO BETTER & VOTE BLUE!🇺🇸🌊

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