BUSINESS MAVERICK: Inflation eases in July, giving SA Reserve Bank room to keep lending rates flat

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South Africa’s consumer inflation inched lower in July, to 4.6% year on year from 4.9% in June, with the continued rise in food and meat product prices balanced out by a dip in the cost of education and communications, possibly giving the SA Reserve ...

On a monthly basis, consumer price growth increased 1.1%. Annual inflation hit a 14-month high in April, and the riots and looting last month, coupled with rising inflation elsewhere in the world and a steady increase in oil prices, had stoked bets of further rises in consumer prices locally.

At last month’s monetary policy committee meeting, SA Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago said the economic impact of the riots had prevented the bank from lifting its economic growth estimates for 2021, but added that inflation was expected to be near or below the middle of the target at least until 2023. Wednesday’s figure may give the bank the room it needs to keep supporting the recovery.Overall, inflationary pressures continue to moderate downwards as expected, as base effects dissipate.

The bank next decides on lending rates in mid-September, about a month before new Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is due to deliver his maiden medium-term budget policy statement after he was appointed by President Cyril Ramaphosa during last month’s Cabinet reshuffle.

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