And more think the index will either be flat or down than up by more than 10%.
"It's always best to be as accurate as you can, but since being accurate is hardest thing to do, the next best thing is to overdeliver," said Mitch Goldberg, president of investment advisory firm ClientFirst Strategy."In next 10 years, we expect a positive return of anywhere from 5%-8% annualized. I'm comfortable saying that, but I'm not comfortable saying next year only expect 5%.
"Professionally speaking, you want to temper expectations about what returns can look like," he said."Every year S&P predictions are wrong, so millennials may be thinking 'there guess is as good as mine, but when I am doing planning, I am being conservative in assumptions on rates of return in market portfolios," Boneparth said."Because I am trying to build margin of safety, so if you are up 10%, you are way ahead of the curve.
"In the low interest rate environment, a subset of people are learning how to drive returns through equity, whether private or direct or public," Sonnenfeldt said. Even with rates set to rise in 2022, they will remain at what are very low levels compared to history.
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