As stocks sink this year, Bank of America clients want to know what may drive a Fed pivot

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Bank of America’s clients are wondering when they might get some relief from the sharp drop in “risk assets” this year, according to BofA Global Research.

Bank of America’s clients are wondering when they might get some relief from the sharp drop in “risk assets” this year, looking for indicators that may warrant a shift from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary policy stance as it aims to bring down high inflation, according to a BofA Global Research note.

“Bad news=good news when the labor market cracks,” the strategists wrote in the report. “The S&P 500 typically bottoms three months before claims peak.” Their research, which is based on the past six fed-funds cycles, also found that 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields typically peak with a strong labor market shortly after initial jobless claims bottom. On average, the two-year yield peaks four months after the trough, while 10-year rates reach their peak eight months after it’s hit.

 

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