DAVID CROSOER: Making sense of investment cycles

Equity markets have been under considerable selling pressure in 2022 as investors expect that stubbornly high inflation will cause central banks to raise short-term interest rates multiple times this year. At the same time, expectations for global economic growth have been revised downwards, after further disruptions to global supply chains on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s strict Covid-19 lockdown measures.

Long-term inflation expectations today are still anchored on what they have averaged since 2000. The IMF forecasts that developed market inflation may fall back below 2% per annum by 2024 and is not expecting SA inflation to exceed 6% a year over its forecast period . At the same time, we have started building up a higher cash position given that the market is not expecting that real interest rates could be materially higher than the recent past, with muted interest rate expectations more than 12 months out.

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