Here are some truths: During the last two summers, BTC spot exchange volumes were down about 43.5% in 2021 and about 14.0% in 2022 when compared to the preceding three months, respectively. Volumes were down in both comparable periods, but bitcoin’s price gained 33.1% in 2021 and lost 32.6% in 2022. So if the last two years are any indication, you can reasonably suggest that volumes are thinner in summer, but you probably wouldn’t suggest that it leads to a price increase or decrease.
If you then look forward to September, the same volume historically increases rather quickly. The spot exchange volumes in September were $10.7 billion and $51 billion for 2020 and 2021, respectively. Those values make up 38.9% and 42.7% of the preceding three months of volumes .So you could reasonably expect trading volume to pick up, and it typically does in the fourth quarter anyway.
Well, if previous Septembers are any indication , it is valuable to know that bitcoin’s price has decreased in September every year since 2017. So does that mean, after bitcoin performed so poorly this summer, it will be absolutely, tremendously down in September?Who knows? See, the thing about looking at tangible metrics of price performance and volume over time periods is there is one critical item missing in those numbers.
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