Gold investors and traders are reacting strongly to any shift in the Federal Reserve’s narrative concerning upcoming interest rate hikes. This was seen on Friday when a single article published by the Wall Street Journal resulted in strong gains for gold. On Friday Mary Daly the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank said, “I think the time is now to start talking about stepping down – the time is now to start planning for stepping down,”.
On Friday the FedWatch tool predicted that there is a 46.3% probability that the Fed funds rate will be between 450 and 475 basis points by the end of 2022. This greatly differs from last Thursday’s prediction which indicated a probability of 75.4 %. Today the FedWatch tool is predicting that there is a 53.7% probability that the Fed’s benchmark by year-end will be between 450 and 475 basis points.
It is quite plausible that market participants looked closer at statements by Mary Daly who qualified her statements “that slowing down was not the same as stopping rate hikes” and that the Federal Reserve benchmark rate will ultimately rise to “4 ½ or 5%” which is “a very reasonable estimate of where we’ll need to go”.
You’re news is always a day or two behind. No longer relevant