Recession ahead? This bond-market indicator is flashing a 'code-orange' warning

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Another key measure of the yield curve is inverting, sending a recession warning.

Signs of an impending U.S. recession keep piling up and now another widely followed bond-market measure is starting to intermittently flash its own warning.

Until now, those who doubted the world’s largest economy would tip into recession were at least able to point to this spread: It managed to stay above zero much of this year, even after one of its counterparts — the spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields — went negative in July and stayed there for months. But on Tuesday and Wednesday, things changed: the 3-month rate intermittently traded above the 10-year yield.

Still, he said, the significance of the moves on Tuesday and Wednesday is that “the countdown is on,” and the Federal Reserve’s need to keep hiking interest rates in order to contain inflation “is driving the yield curve in ways that are also potentially pushing the economy off the cliff in terms of a recession.”

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Looks like you need help on what a recession is: Definition: A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.

Recession is at the door

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Yes

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