Worst of RBA’s rate pain is still a year off for property market

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OPINION: The usual lagged effect of monetary policy is being compounded by high proportion of mortgage borrowers on fixed-rate loans. That makes the RBA’s job a lot harder.

With Tuesday’s 0.25 of a percentage point rate rise, official interest rates are now set at 3.1 per cent for at least 63 days. That gives Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe plenty of time to reflect on the dramatic year that was – and the puzzle of what comes next.

between May and November; by March 2023, only 70 per cent of the increases would have been passed through. Citi banking analyst Brendan Sproules points out that most of these fixed loans will expire between March 2023 and September 2023. For now, these borrowers are feeling no mortgage payment pain. But it’s coming, and it won’t be pretty.Based on NAB’s forecast that the RBA will take rates to a peak of 3.6 per cent next year, Sproules expects a median borrower with a fixed-rate loan expiring in September 2023 will have their monthly mortgage payment leap by 70 per cent. By comparison, variable-rate borrowers will be hit with an increase of 34 per cent., with one in five to see it reduced by between 60 per cent and 100 per cent.

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It is not just about mortgage payers.

And who created that problem for the RBAInfo? Themselves! what’s more- he $500bio they lent out for 3yr 0.1% was not 96yr ~15% of the $3trio Aussie mortgage market— so clearly excessive— but they’ve LOST ~$50bio as a result and are in negative equity for 10yrs! LoweMustGo

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