: Maybank Investment Bank Bhd believes Bank Negara Malaysia may surprise by either holding the Overnight Policy Rate or making a “dovish hike” accompanied by explicit language to signal a pause ahead.“Another OPR hike in January could reinforce the upward spiral on the three-month Kuala Lumpur Interbank Offered Rate , in our view, unless a compensating liquidity measure is announced,” it said in a note.
It said the market overwhelmingly expects BNM to raise the rate by 25 basis points, its fifth in a row, at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday. “It is true that languages in the last MPC statement in November keep the door open for more hikes but not without a caveat indicating that rate normalisation is not on any preset course,” Maybank IB said.
“Inflation is subject to volatility depending on the timing and extent of administrative price adjustments. Demand-pulled inflation requires monitoring, but may not necessarily sustain if reopening effect begins to subside and policy tightening weighs.