But strong labor-market data and a less-hawkish Federal Reserve are distracting investors from that pain that's due to come, he said.
Take the yield curve, he said, which is at its most inverted level in more than four decades. Shorter-term bond yields rising higher than longer-term yields reflects tight monetary policy and low investor confidence in the economy's near-term prospects. The curve has inverted before every recession since the 1960s.
"What the Fed already did last year has not yet affected the economy," he told Insider on Friday."What the Fed does typically affects the economy six to 12 to 18 months after they do it, and they didn't even start until March of last year."
Manufactured.
how bout his opinion is worth nothing
'Great, just what we need: Another financial expert with a crystal ball.'
S&P 500 will be range bound for many years in the 3500 to 4500 range. We saw something similar in the 1970's
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