Wall Street’s main artery for financing commercial real estate has sputtered this year as higher interest rates and sagging property values darken the outlook for borrowers with an estimated $2 trillion of debt coming due through 2024.
Issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities, or bonds sold by Wall Street banks to finance commercial buildings, has fallen by about 83% so far this year to $9 billion, according to Deutsche Bank research. Since landlords finance the bulk of U.S. real estate with debt, interest rates TMUBMUSD10Y play a major role in dictating market conditions. Terms were looser, and borrowers could take equity out of buildings based on record valuations, when financing was cheap and abundant in recent years, but the reverse has gripped properties in need of funding since the Federal Reserve began to rapidly increase rates by 500 percentage points in the past year.
Office building price may drop up to 50% In addition to office properties left half-empty by remote work, stress at regional banks loaded up with commercial real-estate exposure also has been a source of angst since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in March. Shares of the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF KRE were down about 35% on the year through Friday, according to FactSet.
“Yes, there is a lot of carnage coming if you look at San Francisco’s office market,” Ewing said. “But we do think that if you aren’t throwing the baby out with the bathwater that there’s a lot of value out there.”
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