Wall Street’s “fear gauge” has fallen to its lowest level in more than three years as the S&P 500 index looks poised to break out of bear-market territory.
At the same time, the S&P 500 SPX notched a fresh 10-month high as the large-cap gauge looked set to exit bear-market territory, having risen nearly 20% from its closing low of 3,577.03 reached on Oct. 12, according to FactSet data. This reservoir of capital could soon be put to work in the market, Stovall and Johnson said, if investors feel they’re missing out after what has been a strong rebound year for stocks after the losses of 2022, which were the worst since 2008. The S&P 500 is up 11.5% so far in 2023, with the Nasdaq up 26.5%.
But on Feb. 5, 2018, the short-volatility trade suddenly imploded, provoking what market strategists called “volmageddon.” Although it tends to move in the opposite direction of the S&P 500 on a daily basis — but not always — the level of the index is actually determined using demand for put and call options tied to the S&P 500.
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