Commercial inventories of crude oil and refined products in the OECD advanced economies were around 2 842 million barrels at the end of May, according to the US Energy Information Administration .Given stocks almost exactly in line with the long-term seasonal average, it is unsurprising spot prices and calendar spreads were also close to average.
While the real price was a little low, it was not obviously mispriced or significantly below the long-term median price of $81. The spread was slightly high, but again not obviously mispriced, or significantly above the long-term median of a backwardation of 98 cents.There are no comprehensive estimates for OECD inventories in June as yet.
Looking forward, production cuts by Saudi Arabia and its allies in OPEC, as well as the declining oil and gas rig counts in the United States, are likely to deplete inventories later in 2023 and into 2024.
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