While it might be easy to lump big retailers together, it never pays to paint any industry with a broad brush. That much is obvious when it comes to Walmart and Target’s big divergence in 2023.
As Barron’s has noted, there’s no shortage of worries that could be weighing on Target, from increasing theft to politics. But the heart of the problem likely boils down to what consumers need and want to buy. Some have no money left over after paying for nonnegotiables like food and shelter—U.S. credit card balances crossed the $1 trillion mark this summer as more Americans used debt to keep the lights on. Shoppers with some discretionary money likely find that those funds have shrunk, and they are still typically choosing to spend their fun money on services and experiences—rather than the goods they stocked up on during the pandemic.
Walmart also gets more than half of its business from essentials like food. And its reputation for low prices means that it is gaining customers who are feeling strapped—even six-figure earners.Data prove that point. Looking at the past 18 quarters, Tarlowe found that value and mass retailers have clearly outperformed peers. Walmart’s U.S. operations and Costco Wholesale are the only retailers that have delivered comparable sales growth every quarter during that time frame.