The S&P 500 is brushing up against ‘the mother of all trend lines.’ What happens next could make or break the market.

After what’s shaping up to the worst month for stocks so far this year, some investors have been zeroing in on a chart indicating a showdown is coming for the S&P 500 SPX.

Climbing oil prices CL.1, -1.23% and fears that consumer spending will slow, notably as student-loan payments moratoriums end, are other factors that have been eating into investor confidence. That’s as October tends to be the most volatile month of the year. His chart shows how those patterns have been shaping the Nasdaq Composite COMP, down 6.7% so far in September, also the worst month of 2023:

Kramer said on the 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, there is key resistance at 4.69%, then no resistance when it hits 5.25%. He adds that market stress really started showing up when the Bank of Japan started altering its negative interest rate policy in July, allowing the 10-year JGB BX:TMBMKJP-10Y to rise to 1%. “This whole thing started after July BOJ meeting,” he said.He also pointed to moves overseas, calling it a “global resent.” The U.K.

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