The first big one will be on the Dollar side, with the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s lastmeeting due on Wednesday. These might now look even more historic than usual given that robust economic numbers out of the US since the meeting have seen rate-cut expectations pushed out to June, but the nuances of Fed discussion usually manage to move markets, if not always durably.
As-expected figures will hardly suggest that the German economy needs the current, record-high interest rates it’s stuck with, but the European Central Bank will want to be sure thathas been stopped before it offers any relief there and rate cuts aren’t expected to come anytime soon. Indeed, some economists think we could be well into next year before inflation returns to its 2% target.
The slide since late January has also seen the back in a broad trading range last seen in early December, between 1.08495 and 1.07247. The single currency did nudge below the range base last week, but it wasn’t there for long and it traded back into the band very quickly, suggesting that Euro bulls are prepared to show some resolve at those levels.
IG’s sentiment data finds traders balanced finely between bullishness and bearishness over EUR/USD, perhaps suggesting that this is a market in need of a new catalyst.Leveraged trading in foreign currency or off-exchange products on margin carries significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. We advise you to carefully consider whether trading is appropriate for you based on your personal circumstances. Forex trading involves risk. Losses can exceed deposits.
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