A busy week lies ahead, with tons of data and much Fed speak. This will make for plenty of headlines and possibly a volatile week as the focus shifts back to the economy.
So, robust economic data coupled with what I would imagine is pretty hawkish Fed speak should continue to trim thefor rate cuts in 2024. The first full rate cut is now expected in July, and the calendar setup of the FOMC meeting, more than three rate cuts, is probably all but ruled out at this point because I can’t imagine the Fed cutting in September in front of the election, barring some unforeseen event.
Still, I think, more generally speaking, with the draining of the BTFP and QT, we have likely seen peak reserves, which is why the Fed wants to change the pace of QT at this point because they know that reserves less BTFP puts real reserves somewhere close to $3.36 trillion and not $3.
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