A renewables-based power system is key for China to achieve peak carbon emission and carbon neutrality goals. Energy storage is a critical technology that can make future power systems flexible by shifting supply and demand. For the 14th Five-Year Plan, the China State Council set a national target of installing 30 gigawatts of non-hydro energy storage by 2025, while provincial goals were more ambitious.
The energy storage system market is even worse. Wood Mackenzie’s ‘China grid-scale winning bid price tracker’ shows that the average bid price of 2-hour grid-scale battery energy storage systems reached US$106.4/kWh in Q1 2024, plunging by 45.1% compared to the same quarter in 2023. Domestic oversupply is forcing manufacturers to battle fiercely for market share with aggressive bid strategies and little margin.
In December 2023, US lawmakers banned the Department of Defense from purchasing batteries produced by China’s six leading manufacturers, including CATL and BYD, beginning in October 2027. Amid growing protectionism and “Build America, Buy America” spirit in the US, many in the industry believe that there will likely be a ban on Chinese batteries once domestic ESS battery supply can meet the US demand, which is forecasted to be possible later this decade.
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