ECB meeting is today’s key event – UK labour market report offers no directional guidance

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We’ve given Fed governor Waller plenty of attention this year.

Markets He’s been the voice of the large minority inside the Fed who from the beginning of the year has been pushing to keep policy rates at their peak levels for longer. Markets had to gradually retrace from huge easing bets at the beginning of the year, guided by Waller’s “What’s the rush?” and “There’s still no rush” chorus.

84 after June CPI data reduced odds of an August BoE rate cut . A bang-in-line UK labour market report offers no directional guidance this morning. The ECB meeting is today’s key event. We expect ECB President Lagarde to hint at a potential 25 bps rate cut at the next September meeting. We don’t think that the outcome today will alter market pricing of quarterly rate cuts over the year ahead .

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