falling by 89 basis points. The drop could have been steeper if not for a late 19 basis point rebound in a one-minute candle at 3:59 PM.
Yesterday’s smaller MOC raises questions. It’s the first time in a while we've seen such a minor close, suggesting that yesterday’s decline might have prompted a shift in those systematic funds., and it also appears that the futures broke an upward-sloping channel. It seems the market finds it easy to rally when there’s low volume, but as soon as that volume starts to tick higher, the rally stops.
This means that once he’s done speaking, there’s still nearly a full day of trading left, unlike the brief 45-minute window after an FOMC meeting. So, while a volatility crush could occur as he speaks, it may not last. This 1.36 region is a strong candidate for a potential bounce, possibly pushing the pair higher toward the 1.39 area.While these bearish engulfing patterns haven’t been highly effective lately, it’s worth noting that similar patterns formed on July 11 and August 1, both of which led to significant declines in the days that followed. So, this one should still be respected.
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