Donald Trump will have a powerful tool at his disposal in his debate with Kamala Harris this week: the lamp of experience.
In fact, it’s long been known to economists that imposing a tariff can improve the terms of trade so much that domestic prices of imported goods subject to the tariff actually fall. This is known as theafter economist Lloyd Metzler who first wrote about the idea all the way back in 1949. What’s more, by increasing the incentives to invest in domestic production, the tariffs can increase global output of the tariffed goods, which also puts downward pressure on prices.
But that is not what’s been happening. The evidence so far indicates that most American firms passed only a fraction of the cost increase on to consumers — more in the range of $100 per family a year…by economists at Harvard University, the University of Chicago and the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston went a step further, examining data from two large retailers on prices of similar goods, some of which face tariffs and some that do not.
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