Inflation, election compounding small business uncertainty: NFIB

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Holly Wade,NFIB Research Center,Uncertainty

The NFIB Small Business Uncertainty Index hit a record high as small business owners report persistent inflation pressures and uncertainty around the...

hit a record high as small business owners report persistent inflation pressures and uncertainty around the upcoming election. NFIB Research Center executive director Holly Wade joinsUncertainty"hit an all-time high for our 50-year survey, and a lot of that has to do with the uncertainty around the election what that means for small business moving forward, what type of environment they'll be operating in. And they're facing a big tax hike, possibly at the end of 2025.

"And so that's one of the main concerns that they have moving into 2025 is that Congress passes legislation to make that permanent, that the administration follows through and signs, and they're looking for a lot of uncertainty on that front.... We're still seeing almost a quarter of our members saying inflation is their single biggest problem in operating their business. And so a lot of business owners are looking for some relief on that end or continued relief.

And so kind of thinking through what that might mean for them, what fed policy going forward means for them in maybe more affordable financing options. However, employment on our questions related to unfilled job openings, hiring plans, you know, those have held up pretty well over the last year, we've seen a decline in those saying that they have uh job opening that they currently aren't able to fill, but we're still in very high levels um back to where we were in 2019, similar with hiring plans.

But in addition to that, we are seeing compensation um plans and also what they've done in the past quarter, still strong numbers. That 20% small business deduction on qualifying income is a, was a huge benefit for them in the 2017 tax cut and Jobs Act.And so that's one of the main concerns that they have moving into 2025 is that Congress passed legislation to make that permanent, that the administration follows through in signs and they're looking for a lot of uncertainty on that front.

 

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