Donald Trump and his allies have touted the betting market forecasts as more accurate than traditional polling in recent weeks.Donald Trump and his allies have touted the betting market forecasts as more accurate than traditional polling in recent weeks.As election day nears, however, Trump’s victory odds have faded, and Harris even retook the lead on one platform this weekend.
Many betting market forecasts for who was most likely to win the election also diverged from typical opinion polls. While the polls pointed to an incredibly close contest for the White House, a few weeks ago betting platforms put Trump clearly ahead.But Trump’s chances have apparently dwindled. Polymarket put them at 58% on Monday, down from 67% last week; Kalshi put them at 53%, down from 65%.
Bets in these markets are bids on political futures contracts. Buying a contract – like the prospect of a Harris, or Trump, presidency – drives the price of that contract, or the perceived probability of it happening, higher.Should you have turned to Polymarket on Monday, for example, and bet on Trump, you would receive $1 for every 58 cents you wagered if he wins the election.