With polls closing in mere hours, betting markets firmly favor former President Donald Trump to secure a second presidential term, though poll-based prediction models indicate the candidates are locked in a: Perhaps the most famous election betting player, the blockchain-based site leans the heaviest toward Trump, giving him 62% implied odds of victory compared to Harris’ 38% by about 8:30 a.m. EST.
The difference between betting market odds and poll-based prediction models has been a major subject of debate in recent weeks, with somebetting markets are a better predictor as bettors are financially incentivized to wager on the candidate more likely to win and skepticsSites offer users contracts whose prices are tied to the real-time, market-implied odds of a certain candidate. Each contract pays out $1 if the bettor opted for the winning candidate and $0 if their wager was incorrect.