ING's Bert Colijn: 'The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it's the latter.
But the price components of the PMIs – as well as recent comments by ECB policymakers – suggest that we will have to revisit our forecast of a 50bp rate cut in December if there is not a downside surprise in the November inflation data due next week.' Ballinger Group's Kyle Chapman: 'The euro is decisively breaking through key levels, falling below 1.04 for the first time since the energy crisis in late 2022. Having crossed this threshold, parity is no longer a huge leap.
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