What is investment research for? Here are a few possible answers. Year-ahead previews don’t fit well in any of these categories. Their themes are by necessity approximate and sweepy. The forecasts they contain are informational rather than instructive, focusing on things like global GDP. Predictions are clipped into a calendar year, which adds difficulty not value.
But common logic dictates that stock markets only fall in response to rate hikes or a recession, and neither is considered likely in the next 12 months. Whatever problems are being stored up, they’re for the next guy. That means . . . say the line, Bart! To find out why next year will be another for the stock pickers, we’d need to read the research, which we’d rather not. Presumably, it’s all to do with thematics , US exceptionalism . and pockets of secular earnings growth .