The U.S. stock market is telling a bullish story now. That’s because the sectors which typically perform best near the end of a bull market are showing weakness, while many of the sectors that usually perform the worst are doing quite well.
It makes sense that different sectors would fare better or worse in the months immediately prior to a bear market beginning. Financials and Utilities suffer, for example, because interest rates typically rise over a bull market’s final stretch. At that same time, Consumer Staples stocks discount the relative strength they are likely to enjoy during the resulting economic downturn.
To be sure, not all of the sectors are telling this bullish story. The Energy sector typically lags the market prior to market tops, and indeed it is far and away the worst performer of the past three months. Meanwhile, Consumer Staples, which typically leads prior to tops, is currently the best. But overall, a statistical comparison of a recent sector ranking with the Ned Davis history shows that things now are more different than similar.
These successes notwithstanding, recent sector returns don’t guarantee that a bear market isn’t about to begin. But, assuming the future is like the past, a bull market top is at least three months away.
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