The Federal Reserve may not be currently forecasting a recession, but sooner or later the U.S. economy’s fortunes will turn for the worse.A new study from Redfin ranked Rochester as the city least at risk of a housing downturn during the next recession. Redfin RDFN, +4.18% computed the downturn risk for the 50 largest cities across the country using the following metrics: • Average loan-to-value ratio of homes sold in 2018• Share of home sales that are flips, i.e.
Rochester had the lowest score of any city studied at 30.4%, followed by Buffalo, N.Y. and Hartford, Ct. . Overall, the top 10 cities that were least likely to see a recession-fueled housing downturn were all located east of the Mississippi River. A number of factors separates cities like Rochester from Riverside. For starters, most of the high-risk cities are located in parts of the country that were hardest hit by the Great Recession. These areas have more volatile home prices than other regions.
Another factor Redfin considered was each city’s exposure to the export market. Because the upcoming recession would likely be caused by the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China, Redin surmised, local economies that are more dependent on global trade could be affected more by the overall economy’s downturn.
does it matter that Riverside is the highest job growth place?
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