Everyone thought the Fed would cut rates. The market is no longer so sure

According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, which measures what the markets are predicting the Fed will do next, the probability of a quarter percentage point rate cut is only 47%, down from 92% just a week ago.Translation: The expectation on Wall Street is that the central bank will leave rates unchanged when it releases its policy statement.An even more dramatic half percentage point cut, which was forecast by some this summer, is no longer even considered an option.

On Monday, oil prices skyrocketed after Saudi Arabian oil facilities were attacked, sparking worries about global oil supply. Higher oil prices can lead to inflation.Read MoreThe United States and China also agreed to delay tariffs and return to the negotiating table, which removed some uncertainty.On top of that, investors are keeping a close eye on economic data, and whether it is flashing a warning light for the economy.

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Fed Steps Into Repo Market to Control Soaring RatesThe Federal Reserve Bank of New York entered the money markets with up to $75 billion of transactions to tamp down rising interest rates that had threatened the central bank’s control of its benchmark fed-funds rate.
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