The presidential election is a year from now. Here's what that means for stocks

History suggests that the market will be bumpy in the first half of 2020 but ultimately settle down once it's clear who the Democratic nominee will be. And after the election dust settles, it probably will be back to business as usual for Wall Street.

Although a second-half market bump during the presidential election cycle may be the norm, these are hardly normal times.The 2020 election could pit a Democrat with anti-Big Business policies running against an incumbent who has started a trade war with China, attacks corporate America on Twitter and has threatened more regulation for Big Pharma and giant tech companies Amazon, Facebook, Google owner Alphabet and Apple.

"There's a president who has been creating a difficult business environment with global supply chain disruptions. And Trump has an agenda to bring drug prices down and get bigger tech companies to behave better," Barings' Smart said. "At some point, asset markets — both equity and fixed-income — may have to price in political uncertainty and changes in the policy agenda," the Putnam analysts said.

TRUMP 2020!!!

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