Airline industry forecast to suffer record $121 billion loss

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Airline losses are surging to unprecedented levels that are expected to be more than double those following the 2008 global economic slump

, according to the industry's main trade group.

The International Air Transport Association on Tuesday predicted carriers will lose a combined record $US84 billion this year and almost $US16 billion in 2021. This compares with $US31 billion during the last recession.The grim forecast comes as airlines seek to gradually restart operations following the grounding of their fleets during the height of the coronavirus pandemic.

"Losses this year will be the biggest in aviation history," IATA Chief Executive Officer Alexandre de Juniac said on a call with reporters. "There is no comparison for the dimensions of this crisis."Losses will amount to between 15 per cent and 30 per cent of revenue this year depending on the region, with no prospect of a return to profitability until 2022 at the earliest, IATA forecast.

Airlines are set to end the year with about $US550 billion in total debt. That means the sector's borrowings next year will be 16 times earnings even on an Ebitdar basis, stretching from 4.6 times in 2019.While some carriers may be able to cope by raising fresh equity themselves, stretched balance sheets are likely to lead to many states buying stakes, it said.

Global connectivity will also be reduced, with the number of city-pair links down by about 25 per cent by the end of the year even after operations resume, the trade body said. Yields, a measure of fares, are likely to be down by around 20 per cent as airlines cut prices to attract passengers back to travel.

 

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